Monday, November 13, 2006

March 8 resigned; March 14 puts its foot down

I have mixed feelings about the resignation of Hezbollah and Amal ministers. I would have loved to say “good riddance!” but the situation is much more complicated than that and it is not yet clear how the situation will evolve.

A glimmer of light in all this chaos: March 14 have finally decided to take matters into their own hands and act as a Majority. In a statement released Sunday, March 14 leaders called on the government to approve the draft text of the International Court and PM Fouad Sanioura reiterated his call for an extraordinary cabinet meeting on Monday to endorse the U.N. draft text.

The current government is not expected to last for long. Despite Sanioura’s rejection of the resignation of the five Shiite ministers, the government will suffer a lack of legitimacy resulting from the non-participation of all of its Shiite members. Replacing the five ministers is virtually impossible since the signature of the President is needed on any decree appointing new ministers and I can’t find any reason that would make Lahoud sign such a decree.

As a result, the current government will soon have to be replaced or modified, unless the Shiite ministers withdraw their resignation. The formation of a new government granting a blocking minority to the opposition is likely in the near future. It is therefore crucial to speed up the adoption of the draft text of the International Court and avoid going through the risk of submitting it to a government granting veto powers to the opposition.

The Majority is under huge pressure to postpone the cabinet meeting and the debate over the U.N. draft text. Will it be able to stand firm and proceed with the adoption of the document?

Update: the Lebanese government convened today in the absence of the Shiite ministers and Environment Minister Yacoub Sarraf who resigned this morning. The draft text of the international court was unanimously approved by the government. “We tell the murderers that we will not give up our rights no matter what the difficulties and obstacles are”!

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