Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Berri’s preemptive strategy

When your name is Nabih Berri and you’ve done – or were forced to do - something you believe is wrong, you tend to strike first in order to avoid being blamed by your opponents. This is Berri’s preemptive strategy.

That explains the unexpected press
conference he held yesterday, the day he – the Speaker of the Parliament – was supposed to convene the Parliament for the first ordinary session in 2007.

Of course, it does not come as a surprise, but it is revealing as such a move only proves that Syria is still unwilling to walk the extra mile to put an end to the crisis Lebanon is facing. Assad has clearly rejected the
carrot that the EU High Representative Javier Solana has graciously presented to him during his visit to Damascus a week ago. Why would he when it is the West that is blinking first? As reported by William Harris in his article “Justice for Lebanon” published in the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian regime has interpreted the recent western “flexibility” as a triumph proving that Syrian policies were "correct and do not need to be changed . . . others should make the required change."

It is also not surprising that Berri’s conference came one day after the Syrian President had set a roadmap for the opposition in his interview to Saudi newspaper Al-Jazeera.
According to Assad, the Lebanese only have 2 choices: The current crisis can only be solved by establishing a national unity cabinet or holding anticipated legislative elections, before adding, in an extremely arrogant and humiliating tone: “I believe this is the logical and constitutional solution”.

He, then, moved on to talk about the International Tribunal, describing the dispute among the different Lebanese factions as “internal” and claiming that some of them reject the tribunal's make-up and see it as “a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and ... a tool for foreign interference”. The signal for his allies is clear: the International Tribunal cannot and shall not pass, at least not in its current draft.

First step to implement the roadmap outlined by Assad: Disrupting any negotiation or deal between the Majority and the Opposition which does not give the latter veto powers to sabotage the Tribunal. Step 1: successfully accomplished by Nabih Berri.

2 Comments:

Blogger Blacksmith Jade said...

You're absolutely right. The entire issue of a 'nationaly unity' government is laughable at best when you consider the paralyzing effect Syria's allies in Lebanon have already had on the constitutional process in the country (e.g., Berri's refusal to convene parliament). A proper account of the distribution of powers among the 'troika' gives Syria's allies a 2/3 majority. But in either case it doesn't matter, as you said, the Syrians will continue find ways to prolong the crisis in Lebanon and block the International Tribunal.

3/21/2007 4:20 PM  
Blogger Blacksmith Jade said...

By the way I really like your site and would like to exchange blog links with you.

let me know if you're interested at:
blacksmithsoflebanon@gmail.com

Cheers

3/21/2007 4:21 PM  

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