March 14 retakes the lead
Finally!!!
I don’t understand what took them so long, but March 14 has finally snatched the most important card that the opposition holds – blackmail – by removing the issue of the International Tribunal from the sphere of political bargaining.
March 14 has regained the upper hand in its confrontation with the opposition and it is up to them now to assume their responsibilities or sink again by putting themselves at the mercy of their opponents (as they have done so many times in the past).
Time is on their side. If they play it well, they will force their opponents to blink first by leaving them only 2 options: Either (1) the status quo followed by presidential elections at the end of summer where the Majority will chose its preferred candidate, and then form a government on its own, or (2) a compromise based on the 19-10-1 formula.
Of course, all the above supposes that the Security Council is ready to establish the International Tribunal under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. None of the permanent members of the Council favor this option and some believe that Russia or China might use their Veto power. Recent observations though lead us to believe that they might refrain from doing so and simply abstain from voting. As was reported by Annahar this morning, the chances of adopting the Tribunal under Chapter VII are, in fact, getting higher.
March 14 also received a significant support from the Maronite Bishops yesterday. In one of their most important and powerful statements, the Bishops sent clear signals to the opposition, and mainly to its Christian components, that the presidential election should be held on time even if there’s no prior agreement on a candidate and warned that any attempt to prevent the electoral session from taking place will be unconstitutional and will not be tolerated by the Church.
But, let’s not get carried away. That was yesterday. As I (and many others) expected, March 14 has stepped back and has all but withdrawn their petition to the UN. Once again, it came on the hands of Nabih Berri, who never runs out of “brilliant” ideas. Makes you wonder if he’s a brilliant diplomat/manipulator or if March 14 are a bunch of amateurs. Just like he stole the momentum from the Majority after the huge demonstration on the 1st anniversary of Hariri’s assassination, where the leaders of March 14 have announced that they will oust Lahoud in a matter of weeks, by inviting them to a national dialogue that wore them down over the months, he is now doing the same by proposing…the same idea. Why change a winning strategy? Just present it in a different package: this time, the dialogue will take place in Saudi Arabia. The answer came faster than the speed of light: Hariri Jr. issued a statement last night welcoming Berri’s initiative and confirmed his readiness to attend such a dialogue in the Kingdom. Just when the opposition was starting to feel the heat, March 14 has (once again) jumped in, headfirst and extended their hand to drag them out of the deadlock they have created.
The idea behind the petition to the UN is most likely to pressure Berri and the opposition in order to try, one last time, to adopt the International Tribunal through Lebanese institutions. However, March 14 could have used this to consolidate its position vis-à-vis the opposition. But apparently, they are still not ready to take matters into their own hands.
I don’t understand what took them so long, but March 14 has finally snatched the most important card that the opposition holds – blackmail – by removing the issue of the International Tribunal from the sphere of political bargaining.
March 14 has regained the upper hand in its confrontation with the opposition and it is up to them now to assume their responsibilities or sink again by putting themselves at the mercy of their opponents (as they have done so many times in the past).
Time is on their side. If they play it well, they will force their opponents to blink first by leaving them only 2 options: Either (1) the status quo followed by presidential elections at the end of summer where the Majority will chose its preferred candidate, and then form a government on its own, or (2) a compromise based on the 19-10-1 formula.
Of course, all the above supposes that the Security Council is ready to establish the International Tribunal under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. None of the permanent members of the Council favor this option and some believe that Russia or China might use their Veto power. Recent observations though lead us to believe that they might refrain from doing so and simply abstain from voting. As was reported by Annahar this morning, the chances of adopting the Tribunal under Chapter VII are, in fact, getting higher.
March 14 also received a significant support from the Maronite Bishops yesterday. In one of their most important and powerful statements, the Bishops sent clear signals to the opposition, and mainly to its Christian components, that the presidential election should be held on time even if there’s no prior agreement on a candidate and warned that any attempt to prevent the electoral session from taking place will be unconstitutional and will not be tolerated by the Church.
But, let’s not get carried away. That was yesterday. As I (and many others) expected, March 14 has stepped back and has all but withdrawn their petition to the UN. Once again, it came on the hands of Nabih Berri, who never runs out of “brilliant” ideas. Makes you wonder if he’s a brilliant diplomat/manipulator or if March 14 are a bunch of amateurs. Just like he stole the momentum from the Majority after the huge demonstration on the 1st anniversary of Hariri’s assassination, where the leaders of March 14 have announced that they will oust Lahoud in a matter of weeks, by inviting them to a national dialogue that wore them down over the months, he is now doing the same by proposing…the same idea. Why change a winning strategy? Just present it in a different package: this time, the dialogue will take place in Saudi Arabia. The answer came faster than the speed of light: Hariri Jr. issued a statement last night welcoming Berri’s initiative and confirmed his readiness to attend such a dialogue in the Kingdom. Just when the opposition was starting to feel the heat, March 14 has (once again) jumped in, headfirst and extended their hand to drag them out of the deadlock they have created.
The idea behind the petition to the UN is most likely to pressure Berri and the opposition in order to try, one last time, to adopt the International Tribunal through Lebanese institutions. However, March 14 could have used this to consolidate its position vis-à-vis the opposition. But apparently, they are still not ready to take matters into their own hands.
posted by M. at 12:22 PM
3 Comments:
M,
If the UN actually moves forward and gives the Lebanese government an ultimatum - you have 2 weeks to approve the tribunal - or chapter 7 gets approved.
This would not only pressure the opposition to move - it will also guarntee that the tribunal gets approved - either through the parliament or chapter 7. At least this way - March 14 could say - hey - we had given them many chances to convene the parliament, and even more time to discuss the tribunal laws, and they did nothing by obstruct - so, now it is out of our hands, and you have the so called opposition to thank for that!
You are mistaken with one point: Harir Jr did not approve Berri's new proposal! Hariri said the 14 Marchians are ready to go to Saudi to celebrate the agreement AFTER reaching it in Lebanon!
Did I miss out anything?
-aj
Abollam,
The statement that was released is not a March 14 statement. It was issued by Hariri as the head of the Future Movement. He may or may not have consulted with his allies, I’m really not sure about that.
Cedop,
Exactly, that was the idea behind the petition. But I was hoping they’d give it some time, just to make sure that things will go as planned. That way, they would corner the opposition and leave them with only the options I mentioned in my post.
I know I was a bit harsh with March 14 in this post. Problem is they let us down so many times in the past that we always assume they will do it again on every opportunity. I guess it’s only fair to change the title, since their current initiative didn’t fail (well, not yet at least).
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