Berri’s preemptive strategy

When your name is Nabih Berri and you’ve done – or were forced to do - something you believe is wrong, you tend to strike first in order to avoid being blamed by your opponents. This is Berri’s preemptive strategy.

That explains the unexpected press conference he held yesterday, the day he – the Speaker of the Parliament – was supposed to convene the Parliament for the first ordinary session in 2007.

Of course, it does not come as a surprise, but it is revealing as such a move only proves that Syria is still unwilling to walk the extra mile to put an end to the crisis Lebanon is facing. Assad has clearly rejected the carrot that the EU High Representative Javier Solana has graciously presented to him during his visit to Damascus a week ago. Why would he when it is the West that is blinking first? As reported by William Harris in his article “Justice for Lebanon” published in the Wall Street Journal, the Syrian regime has interpreted the recent western “flexibility” as a triumph proving that Syrian policies were "correct and do not need to be changed . . . others should make the required change."

It is also not surprising that Berri’s conference came one day after the Syrian President had set a roadmap for the opposition in his interview to Saudi newspaper Al-Jazeera. According to Assad, the Lebanese only have 2 choices: The current crisis can only be solved by establishing a national unity cabinet or holding anticipated legislative elections, before adding, in an extremely arrogant and humiliating tone: “I believe this is the logical and constitutional solution”.

He, then, moved on to talk about the International Tribunal, describing the dispute among the different Lebanese factions as “internal” and claiming that some of them reject the tribunal's make-up and see it as “a violation of Lebanese sovereignty and ... a tool for foreign interference”. The signal for his allies is clear: the International Tribunal cannot and shall not pass, at least not in its current draft.

First step to implement the roadmap outlined by Assad: Disrupting any negotiation or deal between the Majority and the Opposition which does not give the latter veto powers to sabotage the Tribunal. Step 1: successfully accomplished by Nabih Berri.

REMINDER

For those of us who tend to forget or those who treat State institutions as their own backyard:

Article 32 of the Constitution

The Chamber meets each year in two ordinary sessions. The first session opens on the first Tuesday following 15 March and continues until the end of May. The second session begins on the first Tuesday following 15 Oct; its meetings are reserved for the discussion of and voting on the budget before any other work. This session lasts until the end of the year.

Dangling a carrot for Assad

Not that we didn’t expect this all along. However, will Assad accept the overly generous deal?

Un accord secret viserait à épargner à la famille du président Bachar al-Assad les poursuites d'un tribunal international, après l'assassinat de l'ancien premier ministre libanais Rafic Hariri.

En visite aujourd'hui à Damas pour une rencontre longtemps attendue avec le président Bachar al-Assad, le chef de la diplomatie européenne n'a pas une mission facile. Le mandat de Javier Solana est signé par 27 États membres, dont la France, qui, à la surprise générale, a accepté, dès avant le départ du président Jacques Chirac de l'Élysée, de lever son veto antisyrien. Dans un tel contexte, la marge de manoeuvre du haut représentant pour la politique étrangère de l'Union reste étroite. « La France le surveille de très près ! » (…)

(…) Sur la forme, cependant, le régime syrien a marqué un point : ce sont les Européens qui font le premier pas, aujourd'hui, alors que Damas n'a encore fait aucune concession. (…)

(…) Centrée sur la souveraineté du Liban et l'instauration d'un tribunal international pour juger les assassins de Rafic Hariri, la liste des exigences européennes à l'égard de la Syrie est longue, fondée sur différentes résolutions de l'ONU. Mais pour convaincre Damas de s'y associer, Bruxelles ne dispose que de maigres « carottes », comme la reprise d'un accord d'association entre la Syrie et l'UE, gelé en 2004.

Meanwhile, the opposition is busy twisting the news to fit its own agenda. So it seems that Olmert’s recent revelations to the Winograd Commission - about giving a green light in March for a military operation - only served to prove what Hassan Nasrallah and other Hezbollah officials have been saying since last summer: “They were going to attack us anyway!”. Oh yeah, in October, right? Ok.
Obviously too pleased with this piece of info, none of them bothered to read the rest of the sentence: IF Israeli soldiers are to be kidnapped.

Similarly, the opposition is busy drawing its own conclusions from the latest Brammertz report. Nothing official yet but according to New TV, Brammertz has identified the 10 non-cooperating countries. Among them: The US, Israel and France. That’s apparently good enough for some to exonerate Syria.

When you've tasted this...

A solution in sight?

The mood is joyful in Beirut these days. The leaders of two of the world’s most despotic regimes have apparently agreed to solve our problems, completely disregarding some of our “leaders” who continue to claim that the problem is internal in nature. Well, why else would Ahmadinejad bother to visit his Saudi counterpart if not for including a certain political faction in the government – namely the FPM –? Most notable though was the absence of one man: Bashar Al-Assad. Things are not what they used to be on the shores of the Barada.

Not much is being revealed about the latest initiative. But it has been reported that the deal that is being cooked includes the formation of a national unity government (that will be presented as a 19-10-1 government for March 14 supporters and as a 19-11 government for opposition supporters in an effort to please everybody) and an agreement on the international tribunal after introducing a number of amendments in order to please Syria and its Lebanese allies. No winners. No losers. All happy.

The Reform & Change bloc would be represented by 4 ministers: 2 ministers from Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, a third from the Tashnag and a fourth from Elias Skaff’s Popular Bloc. Giving Michel Aoun 2 ministers will certainly not be well received by his rival Samir Geagea who has been working hard ever since he was freed from prison to prove his popular support and to regain parts of the “Christian street”. After the impressive and surprising LF turnout at the 2nd anniversary of Hariri’s assassination, it is hard to believe that they are going to settle for a mere minister of tourism. The LF is most likely going to take Yaacoub Sarraf’s position. One would hope that March 14 has learned from its mistake and would insist on nominating at least one Shiite minister, not only to avoid accusation of unconstitutionality in case of a similar crisis in the future but also to reach out to those Shiites who do not identify with Hezbollah or Amal. But let’s not get too ambitious.